Drought Groundwater Cyclone Day Zero Water Bucket
Photo Credit: On File

According to the City of Cape Town’s modelling, Day Zero – the projected date when the city would cut the ordinary supply of water to its citizens – will not take place this year.


Is the drought over? Well, rain is finally falling in the Mother City and the prediction is that there will be more rainfall over the winter period compared to the data from the previous four years; although it is too difficult to predict a higher level of rainfall occurring this winter.

This comes as the recorded rainfall for the period for January to May was 10 millimetres higher than the long-term average. But unfortunately this doesn’t mean that the drought is over.

Predicting the level of rainfall for a year involves looking for trends in data from previous years. This trend data, from the last 80 years, shows that the rainfall during April is a strong indicator for the level of rain that will fall throughout the rest of the year. According to this data as well as some rather complex probability mathematics show that 2018 will have a rather average level of rainfall.

Although rainfall is an improvement, the Dam levels are still below the acceptable level to declare the drought over.

Current data puts the average dam levels at 29.8% – which takes into account the average of all dams which supply the city. This is almost 10% up from the dam level of 2017, which was at 19.6%.

Day Zero is defined by dam levels reaching a level of 13.5%, as of May, Day Zero is still forecast as early as September, however, with the promise of a rainy winter season is to be expected to move to 2019.

“Current trends are showing that water usage is decreasing and the restriction limiting individuals to 50l per day is still in place. So we are not out of the drought just yet and we have to continue with our water saving efforts – you can see our water saving tips in our first Drought article – which can be found on the City of Cape Tow’s website.”

If we all work together, we will come out on top and put an end to the Cape Town drought. For more information on water and water fountains visit our website.

Sources: My Cape Town
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Brent Lindeque is the founder and editor in charge at Good Things Guy.

Recognised as one of the Mail and Guardian’s Top 200 Young South African’s as well as a Primedia LeadSA Hero, Brent is a change maker, thought leader, radio host, foodie, vlogger, writer and all round good guy.

1 comment

  1. If the population of The Cape keeps increasing the way it is. We will never ever, be in a position of abundance of water. Time to think long term, pipe lines, more dams. Where ar the days when each town and drop had its own dam.
    Just remember deep dams shallow ones don’t work as well.

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